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Green shoots emerge in New Zealand housing market

By Ann Prinsloo

Several months of good news stories from the residential property market have lifted consumer sentiment, and New

Zealand’s property market is headed in a different direction.

Data from research firm CoreLogic shows that values remained flat in September, ending 17 months of value decline.

Since peaking in March 2022, New Zealand’s median property price has fallen 13.20 per cent, although it’s still 24.30

per cent higher than at the start of the pandemic in March 2020.

Focusing on more significant markets, prices rose by 0.40 per cent in Auckland – the city’s first increase since March

2022.

Prices lifted 0.20 per cent in Christchurch and 0.20 per cent in Dunedin.

Values remain unchanged in Wellington and fell 1.50 per cent in Hamilton and 1.20 per cent in Tauranga.

The numbers indicate that green shoots are starting to sprout, although the recovery is far from uniform.

Speaking before the general election, CoreLogic’s chief economist Kelvin Davidson said it was only a matter of time

before the market began to stabilise.

“Housing market confidence seems to have turned a corner, supported by a rough peak for mortgage rates, high net

migration flows, a still-solid labour market and an easing in credit conditions.

“A growing expectation that National may lead the next government, with more ‘property friendly’ policies, may well

be playing a role here too,” he said.

Mr Davidson also noted signs of “emerging growth”. However, conditions differed from region to region.

“This patchiness among the main centres may well continue in the coming months and is likely to be a feature

elsewhere in New Zealand too.

“After all, while we have broadly reached a trough in the market, we’re not expecting the next phase of growth to be

swift or sudden either given mortgage rates remain challenging for many households,” he said.

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